Google has set 2029 as the deadline for transitioning its encryption systems to post-quantum algorithms. The company revised its earlier estimates, taking into account progress in quantum computing and the potential risks to today’s cryptographic methods.
Google clarified that the move is aimed at preparing for a scenario where quantum computers can break the algorithms currently in use. The updated timeline reflects advances in hardware, improvements in error correction, and estimates of the resources needed to launch such attacks.
The company emphasizes that it is setting a benchmark for the broader industry, encouraging early migration rather than waiting for practical quantum attacks to emerge.
Ethereum Prepares a Transition Plan
Against this backdrop, analyst Nic Carter raises the question of how ready blockchains are for a shift in cryptography. He notes that the elliptic curve cryptography used today has a limited lifespan and will need to be replaced in the foreseeable future.
As a base scenario, Carter outlines coordinated action within Ethereum: publishing a roadmap, rolling out new algorithms step by step, and working openly with the community. He also ties the timeline to the 2029 target.
Analyst Points to Lack of Plan Among Bitcoin Developers
Speaking about Bitcoin, Carter takes a more critical stance. He describes the current approach of developers as “worst in class,” referring to the absence of a publicly defined strategy for transitioning to post-quantum cryptography.
At the same time, he acknowledges that the network can carry out such a migration through a series of updates, including soft forks, and migrate addresses to new standards within a few years. However, a concrete plan comparable to the discussions taking place within Ethereum has not yet been presented.
As a result, the discussion around post-quantum resilience is shifting from theory to engineering. Major technology companies are setting timelines, while the blockchain community is beginning to develop practical transition scenarios.
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