Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has drawn a hard line in the sand for Bitcoin. Amid the current 30% correction from all-time highs, the hedge fund manager declared a prolonged bear cycle inevitable if the community continues to ignore quantum computing risks.
By his calculations, the industry has a strict deadline: safeguards must be implemented no later than next year.
Ultimatum for Maximalists
Edwards believes only a deep crisis will force developers and holders to act. He labels the current denial of the problem a sign of incompetence requiring a “washing out of the idiots” from the market. His projection sees the price falling below $50,000 by 2028, followed by the asset going to zero if the network fails to quantum-proof itself.
The risk extends beyond BTC. Edwards emphasized that ETH sits in an even more vulnerable position without corresponding upgrades. The primary threat involves the potential hacking of wallets belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto and early miners. Cracking these private keys would trigger an instant dump of 1 million BTC, destroying trust in the code.
Tightening Deadlines for Q-Day
The forecast builds on data Edwards presented earlier at TOKEN2049. Citing McKinsey reports and moves by tech giants, he points to a 2–8 year horizon before quantum machines can break Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC).
Edwards highlighted NVIDIA’s pivot as a key indicator of accelerating progress. The company’s CEO shifted from forecasting the tech was “30 years away” to aggressively acquiring quantum startups within a single year.
With China investing twice as much in the sector as the US, the conditions for an arms race are set, drastically shrinking the crypto community’s window to react.
Market Skepticism
Edwards’ comments sparked heated debate. Parts of the community accused the manager of spreading FUD to promote his own quantum fund. Critics argue that if quantum supremacy is achieved, traditional banking systems and military infrastructure will fall victim long before distributed ledgers.
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