Several independent studies suggest that quantum machines might be capable of breaking Bitcoin’s encryption within the next decade, with the highest risk period projected around 2028 – a potential milestone researchers call “Q-Day.”
BTC developer Jameson Lopp, in his 2024 report, estimated a 50% chance of a successful quantum attack within the next four to nine years.
Physicist and mathematician Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers, an expert in quantum simulations, believes that an attack on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), the foundation of Bitcoin’s security, could occur in as little as two to six years.
A 2024 McKinsey study warned that Q-Day could arrive within two to ten years. The report noted that the RSA-2048 algorithm, commonly used in traditional banking, would likely be the first to fall, followed soon after by ECC.
According to the 2017 paper Bitcoin Quantum Security, breaking ECC would require roughly 2,330 logical qubits.
Major quantum computing firms expect to reach that level of capability within the next four years.
The paper’s authors – Microsoft, IonQ, and Meta researchers Michael Naehrig, Martin Roetteler, and Kristin Lauter – first outlined this threshold eight years ago.
A 2025 U.S. Department of Defense report also concluded that the emergence of quantum machines capable of threatening modern cryptography could become possible within three years.
When Q-Day Might Arrive
Based on aggregated forecasts, Bitcoin and other cryptosystems built on classical encryption could face real risk between 2027 and 2029.
Experts caution that without the adoption of quantum-resistant cryptographic protocols, even the most secure blockchains may become vulnerable to attacks powered by next-generation computing.
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