Galaxy Research analyst Will Owens prepared a report outlining the scale of the potential quantum threat to Bitcoin. According to his estimate, up to ~7.0 M BTC (around $470.0 B) could be at risk in a scenario where public keys have already been exposed on the network.
This category includes early wallets, reused addresses, as well as a portion of funds held on exchanges and with custodians. Older address formats are highlighted separately, including coins linked to the earliest stages of Bitcoin’s existence.
Discussion Within the Market
Within the community, two positions have emerged: some consider the threat distant, while others believe it could materialize in the coming years. Against this backdrop, criticism of developers has intensified, with accusations of a slow response.
Owens points to the opposite trend: the number of proposals and discussions has grown significantly since late 2025, and work on protection is already underway at the protocol level.
What Developers Are Doing
Among the priorities are new types of addresses that hide the public key until the moment of spending, as well as a shift to alternative transaction verification methods that are resistant to quantum attacks.
At the same time, scenarios for already vulnerable coins are being discussed. One approach involves limiting the speed of their movement to prevent a sudden surge of liquidity hitting the market in the event of an attack.
Some initiatives are also exploring emergency measures in case quantum capabilities emerge before the network has time to upgrade.
“Key difficulty lies not in developing solutions, but in implementing them: any changes require agreement across the entire ecosystem — from developers to miners and services. Historically, such processes in Bitcoin take years,” the expert emphasized.
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