Bitcoin held above $62,000 during the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, according to a report from Wintermute’s OTC desk. Analysts said the market weathered a series of major geopolitical shocks without triggering a cascading sell-off, while Bitcoin’s price action suggests that selling pressure is easing. At the same time, Bitcoin and Ethereum funds posted their first week of net inflows in eight weeks.
During the reporting period, crypto funds attracted approximately $282 M in net inflows. Before that, investors had withdrawn around $8–9 B from these products over eight consecutive weeks.
Bitcoin Withstood the Geopolitical Shock
Wintermute believes Bitcoin has formed a higher low, demonstrating resilience amid a genuine geopolitical crisis. Following three rounds of U.S. airstrikes on Iran and Tehran’s announcement that it would close the Strait of Hormuz, BTC briefly fell toward $62,000 but held that level and climbed back to nearly $64,000 by the end of the week.
According to the analysts, this was the first time in a long while that the market endured such a significant external shock without a cascading sell-off. The firm attributes this to the fact that a large share of short-term sellers has already exited the market, making negative events far less influential on price action.
The Market Ignored Strategy’s Bitcoin Sale
Another event that had little impact on prices was Strategy’s sale of 3,588 BTC worth approximately $216 M. The proceeds were used to pay dividends on the company’s preferred shares.
Wintermute noted that just two months ago, the sale of only 32 BTC triggered a sharp market sell-off. This time, a much larger transaction had virtually no effect on Bitcoin’s price. According to the analysts, this suggests that concerns surrounding the company’s new policy of selling part of its Bitcoin reserves have largely faded.
Key Factors to Watch This Week
Wintermute emphasized that one week of net inflows is not enough to confirm a trend reversal. A sustained recovery will require a series of consistent ETF inflows.
Among the key factors for the coming week, analysts highlighted the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, oil price movements, and further developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Another important industry event will be the consideration of the CLARITY Act, which is expected to take place later this month.
According to Wintermute, a sustained move above $67,250 would confirm that the market recovery is underway. However, if U.S. inflation comes in higher than expected and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persist, Bitcoin could once again test the $62,000 and $60,000 levels.