Galaxy Research has cut the probability of CLARITY becoming law in 2026 to 50%. With less than a month left before the Senate’s summer recess, the bill still has no scheduled date for debate.
Analyst Alex Thorn said the downgrade reflects the Senate’s overloaded agenda. In his view, there is now very limited time left for the bill to complete all remaining legislative steps.
Why the Timeline Keeps Slipping
Crypto regulation has once again been pushed behind higher-priority legislative items. After Donald Trump declined to sign the housing bill passed by Congress, instead urging lawmakers to first take up the SAVE Act on voter citizenship verification, the Senate was forced to reshuffle its agenda.
Additional floor time will also be needed to extend Section 702 of FISA and advance the defense budget for fiscal year 2027.
Each delay further narrows the window for CLARITY to move through all required stages before the Senate breaks for its summer recess.
Where CLARITY Stands Now
Although CLARITY was placed on the Senate’s legislative calendar in early June, progress has stalled. The bill has yet to receive a full Senate vote date, and lawmakers have not released a unified text agreed upon by the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee.
One of the key sticking points remains conflict-of-interest rules. Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker have said they would only support CLARITY if it includes mandatory ethics provisions.
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Disagreements also persist over developer protection provisions. Galaxy expects at least Republican Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul to vote against the bill.
Outlook
To pass CLARITY, the Senate needs at least 60 votes. Before the end of July, lawmakers must finalize the text, bring it to the floor, debate amendments, and send the approved version to the House of Representatives.
According to Thorn, if Senate leadership does not schedule the bill in early July, the vote will likely be pushed to September. As midterm elections approach, it becomes increasingly difficult for Congress to move controversial legislation.
Market Impact
Uncertainty around CLARITY continues to weigh on crypto markets.
According to Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl, the prolonged debate over the bill has been one of the factors behind Bitcoin’s recent drop below $60,000. Grayscale still expects the Senate to approve the legislation but acknowledges that another delay could increase pressure on crypto assets.