While Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a new all-time high, pressure is quietly building beneath the surface. According to data from Glassnode, both large and small investors continue to accumulate coins. The market is entering a compression phase, with volatility falling to historical lows that have typically preceded sharp price movements.
Slow Movement With Rising Tension
Since early July, Bitcoin has traded in a narrow range below $111.7K, showing no clear trend. However, the Accumulation Trend Score metric indicates that holders are actively adding to their positions, viewing current prices as an attractive entry point.
Accumulation Trend Score. Source: Glassnode
The strong accumulation trend began during the breakout above $100K and transitioned into a phase of distribution. Now the metric is climbing again, but unlike past cycles, activity remains high.
Coin Holding Is Strengthening
Glassnode metrics show an increase in volumes held by Long-Term Holders (LTH). Over the past 30 days, LTHs have accumulated more coins than miners have issued. Experts interpret this as a sign of tightening supply. These investors are holding assets regardless of current prices, prepared to wait for larger moves.
Retail investors are also active. Wallets holding up to 100 BTC (Shrimps, Crabs, and Fish) are collectively adding +19.3K BTC per month, while miners are producing only +13.4K BTC. This discrepancy further amplifies supply-side scarcity.
Volatility Is Compressing Across the Board
As accumulation continues, market volatility is rapidly decreasing. Glassnode reports that Realized Volatility metrics across all timeframes have dropped to historic lows:
1 week: volatility was higher on 796 out of 951 days (84%)
1 month: 856 out of 951 days (89%)
3 months: 914 out of 951 days (96%)
6 months: 732 out of 951 days (77%)
A similar trend is visible in the options market. Implied Volatility metrics for options are also near record lows:
1 week: higher on 88,9% of days
1 month: 89,7%
3 months: 88%
6 months: 93,4%
This suggests further movement could be on the horizon, especially given that only 6% of trading days have seen a narrower 30-day price range, and just 0,4% experienced a tighter 60-day range.
Price Sensitivity Is Increasing
The Realized Supply Density metric reveals that around 19% of all BTC supply is concentrated within ±10% of the current price. This means a significant portion of the market sits in a zone where even small price changes can heavily affect investor profitability and trigger heightened trading activity.
Realized Supply Density (BTC). Source: Glassnode
ETF Inflows Slow but AUM Reaches Record Levels
Inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed in recent days, totaling +$144 mln. Still, the total assets under management (AUM) reached a record $137 bln. This reflects continued institutional interest despite short-term fluctuations.
ETFs now account for 6,4% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization - an all-time high.
BlackRock Strengthens Its Dominance
IBIT, BlackRock’s ETF, controls 55% of all assets among Bitcoin ETFs. It is followed by Fidelity (16,2%) and Grayscale (14,7%). In terms of 30-day balance changes, BlackRock consistently outpaces its competitors and holds an almost monopolistic position in the options segment:
IBIT: 4.2 mln contracts
FBTC (Fidelity): 81K
BITB (Bitwise): 15K
This scale creates a self-reinforcing liquidity loop: high volume and AUM attract market makers, improve spreads, and reduce costs, which in turn draws more investor interest.
ETF Average Reflects Market Positioning
Deposits into IBIT are valued at $75.3K, which nearly matches estimates of the current market average:
True Market Mean: $72.2K
Active Investor Cost Basis: $78.4K
This alignment shows how deeply ETFs are embedded into market infrastructure and how they shape investor psychology.
