The crypto market could mirror the extended growth and late peak seen in 2017, according to Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal. In a recent statement, he compared current market behavior to previous cycles. Pal also noted that major funds and Gulf states are increasingly entering the space.
Parallels With 2017
In a new video, Raoul Pal emphasized that the current crypto market dynamics are “strikingly similar” to those of 2017, when Bitcoin experienced gradual growth, peaking in December. He argued that today's macroeconomic environment supports a longer cycle. Pal uses his own Business Cycle Score model to gauge the global economic outlook, which currently remains below 50 – indicating an early stage of the business cycle. According to him, such phases typically take time to gain momentum.
In 2017, Bitcoin started at $1.044, rose to $2.187 by the end of May, and ended the year at $14.156 – an increase of approximately 1,255%.
Weak Dollar as a Cycle Extender
Pal believes that a weakening U.S. dollar could be a key factor supporting continued growth. Since the start of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped by 8,99%, now standing at 98.77. Historically, Bitcoin and the dollar have moved in opposite directions, so a falling DXY tends to make BTC more attractive. Both as a speculative asset and as an alternative to fiat currencies.
He added that the current cycle is likely to extend into the second quarter of 2026. In his view, delayed interest rate adjustments and dollar volatility have shifted the entire crypto market cycle forward.
More Like 2020 Than 2021
Pal also pointed out that current conditions are more reminiscent of 2020 than 2021. Back then, Bitcoin started the year at $7.174, dropped to $5.227 in March, surged 129% by August, and closed the year at $28.993, a 304% annual gain.
According to Pal, the market is still in its early phase and needs greater involvement from large institutional players to continue growing.
Interest From Sovereign Wealth Funds
Pal shared that he recently visited the Middle East and met with representatives from sovereign wealth funds in Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain, and Qatar. According to him, all parties are viewing blockchain and AI as strategic sectors.
He clarified that this interest goes beyond simply adding Bitcoin to reserves. These governments are also exploring the development of state infrastructure based on blockchain technology.
On-Chain Activity Declines as Price Rises
Previously, analysts from Glassnode reported a sharp drop in Bitcoin on-chain activity. Despite prices exceeding $100,000, the number of transactions remains at a low. Meanwhile, large players continue moving billions of dollars. Most of the trading volume now takes place on centralized exchanges and in the derivatives market.
In this context, the Bitcoin spot network appears unusually calm, and miner revenue from transaction fees is declining.
This post is for informational purposes only and is not an ad or investment advice. Please do your own research making any decisions.