Bitcoin (BTC) has returned to early May levels, once again trading in the $100K–$110K range. Over the past week, the price briefly dropped to $99K due to rising geopolitical tensions but recovered to $106K following de-escalation news. Against this backdrop, profit-taking has slowed, key network metrics have weakened, and futures markets have turned cautious.
Support Remains Intact
According to Glassnode, strong demand is still concentrated in the $93K–$100K zone. This was the primary accumulation area during Q1 2025. As long as Bitcoin trades above this level, the structure of the bull market remains intact. However, a break below could trigger increased selling pressure.
BTC's Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap. Source: Glassnode
Futures Market Reduces Leverage
Volatile weekend price movements led to liquidations: $28.6 mln in long positions and $25.2 mln in shorts. As a result, open interest in BTC futures dropped 7%, from 360K BTC to 334K BTC. Analysts view this as a sign of deleveraging and temporary market stabilization.
Volume and Profits Decline
The 7-day average on-chain transfer volume fell 32% – from $76 bln at the end of May to $52 bln last weekend. At the same time, daily spot trading volume dropped to just $7.7 bln, well below the levels recorded during BTC’s rally to $111K in Q2 and Q4 of 2024. This suggests weak retail interest and a consolidation phase after prior price surges.
BTC's Total Transfer Volume. Source: Glassnode
Speculative Appetite Weakens
Despite relatively high futures activity, the annualized funding rate and the basis for three-month contracts continue to decline. This trend indicates investors are hesitant to open new long positions, and market sentiment is shifting toward caution. Interest in arbitrage strategies and short positions may also be on the rise.
Cooling Phase Sets In
As growth slows, profit taking fades, and investor activity declines, the market shows signs of fatigue. Experts note that total realized profits in the current cycle have already reached $650 bln – higher than the $550 bln recorded during 2020–2022. Current trends suggest weakening momentum, and without a fresh influx of capital and activity, reaching new highs appears unlikely.
