Bitcoin’s price recovered on Monday to $105,526 after a sharp drop below $98,500 on Sunday. It was the first time in 45 days that BTC fell below $100,000. Market participants responded to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement announcing a “complete and total ceasefire” between Iran and Israel. With the situation stabilizing, traders are once again speculating about Bitcoin’s potential rise to $110,000.
Pressure on Derivatives and Liquidations
Despite price swings, the Bitcoin futures market remained stable. According to Coinglass, long positions worth $113 million were liquidated in 24 hours — about 0,3% of total open interest. Total liquidations amounted to $470 million, with $147 million in Bitcoin alone.
A 4,4% decline does not appear critical in the context of recent weeks. Similar pullbacks occurred at least three times over the past month. Still, some investors remain cautious due to the ongoing risks of escalation in the Middle East and the potential threats this poses to the global economy.
Hashrate Decline and Weather-Related Disruptions
According to Coinwarz, Bitcoin’s hashrate dropped by 8% from Sunday to Thursday — from 943 million to 865 million terahashes per second (TH/s). This raised speculation about disruptions at mining farms, including in regions with limited transparency such as Iran. While no official data exists on mining activity in the country, previous analysis suggested that up to 2 gigawatts of capacity may be used illegally there.
Daniel Batten noted that sharp hashrate fluctuations are not unusual. For example, on April 22, the metric dropped by 27% after severe storms in Texas and Oklahoma. The bad weather disrupted power grids, forcing miners to temporarily shut down their equipment.
Oil Prices Drop, Fed Rates Under Pressure
On Monday, following U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iranian authorities announced plans to block the Strait of Hormuz — a critical route for a quarter of global oil shipments. As a result, oil prices dropped after peaking at $77 the day before. At the same time, the S&P 500 index rose by 1%. In Qatar, the strikes fueled expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) might begin to ease its monetary policy.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch, the probability of maintaining the current 4,25% interest rate through November dropped to 8,4%, down from 17,1% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the chance of a rate cut to 3,75% or lower rose from 38% to 53%.
Market Cap Growth and Top Altcoin Response
The total crypto market capitalization increased by 4,38% in the past 24 hours, reaching $3.26 trillion. Major altcoins also posted gains:
- Ethereum (ETH) rose by 7,36% to $2,418.
- XRP gained 7,76% to $2.19.
- Solana (SOL) was up 7,97% to $145.
- BNB climbed 3,11% to $642.44.
