Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates published an essay on the consequences of AI development and the measures needed to mitigate its impact on the labor market.
In his view, the current tax system encourages automation: employers pay taxes and other contributions on employees’ wages, while the purchase of a robot can usually be written off as a business expense. He therefore proposes taxing AI tokens and robots, with the proceeds used for retraining and social support for people who have lost their jobs or income.
“Many jobs will disappear permanently,” Gates writes.
He believes entry-level and mid-level positions will be hit first. Already, as generative AI has spread, employment among young workers has declined in jobs that are most vulnerable to automation. Going forward, the impact will extend to sales, customer support, software development, some medical tasks, legal professionals, and data analysts.
Gates expects robots to begin competing with humans in some physical jobs by the end of the decade, particularly in construction and the hospitality sector.
“Automation will accelerate: if one company cuts costs with AI and lowers its prices, its competitors will have to do the same,” Gates wrote.
In Gates’ view, the new jobs created will not offset those that disappear. The transition will be especially difficult for young people, who may face a shrinking number of entry-level positions.
In addition to the tax, the businessman proposes identifying in advance the areas where human labor should be preserved, even when technology could replace it. He gives elderly care and certain tasks in healthcare and education as examples.
He does not expect an international agreement that could slow AI development: the economic and geopolitical incentives are too strong. Instead, he calls on countries to create new rules and institutions to manage the impact of the technology — from changes in the labor market to issues involving education, healthcare, energy, and taxation.
Gates is confident that AI can deliver major benefits: accelerate scientific research, make healthcare and education more accessible, increase productivity, and help people perform complex tasks.
“Therefore, tax regulation should not stand in the way of applications that deliver clear public benefits,” he emphasized.