BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in a new essay that if U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans for yield curve control (YCC) and large-scale issuance are implemented, the volume of new credit by 2028 could exceed $15.2 trillion.
According to his calculations, this could push Bitcoin to $3.4 million, while it currently trades around $113,000. Hayes emphasized that this is not an exact target, but rather an indication of the trend under monetary expansion.
Credit Expansion as a Tool
According to Hayes, the plans of Treasury Secretary Bill Bessent (Buffalo Bill Bessent) for U.S. reindustrialization involve using the practice of YCC. This refers to artificially limiting bond yields, similar to the approach used between 1942 and 1951, when the yield on short-term Treasury bills was capped at 0.675% and long-term bonds at 2,5%.
Today the yield curve is flatter, making it difficult for regional banks to lend to small and medium-sized businesses. Hayes believes that a steep yield curve benefits banks.
“It makes lending to companies with up to 500 employees safer and more profitable,” he said.
Capital Reallocation
Hayes notes that Bessent intends to redirect issuance from the Fed and major financial institutions to the regional banking sector. This should revive lending to real industry, including the military-industrial complex.
Lower yields on long-term bonds would allow the Treasury to issue unlimited amounts of new securities with lower debt servicing costs. According to Hayes, this will reduce federal financing expenses and boost exports through a weaker dollar against other currencies and gold.
How Trump Could Gain Control of the Fed
In Hayes’s view, implementing these plans requires the U.S. President to secure a majority in the Federal Board of Governors (FBOG) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Trump already has three loyal members out of seven on the board and needs one more vote for full control.
A majority in the FBOG would make it possible to lower the interest rate on bank reserves (IORB) and create pressure on the FOMC. Control of the FOMC would provide the ability to use the Fed’s balance sheet to purchase bonds through SOMA. According to Hayes, this would become the basis for large-scale dollar issuance.
Bitcoin Forecast
Hayes calculated that over the period until 2028, the total volume of new credit could reach $15.229 trillion: $7.569 trillion from increased bank lending and $7.66 trillion from Fed bond purchases. Using the ratio of Bitcoin growth to dollar issuance during the pandemic, he projected a price of $3.4 million per BTC.
At the same time, he stressed that he focuses on the trend direction.
“In conditions of large-scale issuance, Bitcoin remains the strongest asset,” Hayes summarized.
Also Read:
- Arthur Hayes Predicts 126x Growth for HYPE Token
- Citigroup Sees Ethereum Dropping to $4300 by Year-End
- Bitwise Predicts Solana Growth Driven by Institutional Inflows
This post is for informational purposes only and is not an ad or investment advice. Please do your own research making any decisions.