The bank’s forecast covers a wide range: in the optimistic case, ETH could rise to $6400, while in the negative case it could fall to $2200.
Key Drivers
According to analysts, the main driver of Ethereum’s price remains network activity. However, a significant part of that growth is currently coming from Layer 2 solutions. Citigroup estimates that only about 30% of this activity is reflected in ETH’s value, meaning the current price is above the model estimate. Analysts attribute this to inflows of investment and rising interest in tokenization and stablecoins.
Role of ETFs and Macroeconomics
Analysts note that Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have a stronger price impact per dollar invested than bitcoin ETFs. However, the overall effect remains limited due to Ethereum’s smaller market capitalization and weaker recognition among new investors.
Macroeconomic influence is assessed as moderate. With the S&P 500 index nearing its target level of 6600 points, the bank does not expect significant growth in risk assets.
ETH Outflows From Exchanges and Weakening BTC Momentum
In early September, CryptoQuant analysts noticed increasing demand for Ethereum despite price corrections. Users continue withdrawing coins from exchanges, indicating accumulation and a reduced willingness to sell in the short term.
According to CryptoQuant, ETH reserves on Binance are declining, while bitcoin reserves remain relatively stable. At the same time, the MVRV metric for BTC points to weakening market momentum.
Wall Street Token
In late August, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck said in an interview with Fox Business that banks and financial companies will not be able to ignore stablecoins. He explained that in order to accept such payments, institutions will need to integrate blockchain, with Ethereum or Ethereum-compatible solutions such as ECM being the logical choice.
He called ETH “the Wall Street token” and noted that in a technological transition, the blockchain that builds the infrastructure will come out ahead.
According to Coinmarketcap, at the time of writing, the asset is trading at $4,508.
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