Global macro analyst Luke Gromen has turned bearish on BTC in the near term. In a recent episode of the RiskReversal podcast, he argued that Bitcoin appears vulnerable amidst shifting investor narratives and tightening macroeconomic conditions.
The analyst does not rule out a price drawdown to the $40,000 range by 2026.
Gold Takes the Lead
Gromen remains structurally confident in the "debasement trade" thesis—the bet that fiat currencies will inevitably lose value.
Typically, this scenario drives capital from cash into hard assets. While Gromen previously grouped Bitcoin with gold as a primary inflation hedge, the dynamic has shifted.
According to Gromen, precious metals and select equities are currently doing a better job of preserving capital than digital assets.
“Basically everything but the dollar and gold will get waylaid. Governments will continue to inflate away the real value of debts, but Bitcoin has temporarily lost its status as a safe haven in this game,” he noted.
Gromen’s forecast arrives as Bitcoin trades sideways. Following the Fed rate cut, the asset momentarily surrendered the key $90,000 level but continues to test that range.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $89,850, down approximately 2,5% over the past week.
