In the first half of August, Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to $124.000, marking a new all-time high above July’s $123.838. However, before that, the asset had dropped to $112.000. According to VanEck data from August 13, 92% of on-chain holders remained in profit.
Spot activity was accompanied by a rise in CME basis to 9%, the highest since February 2025. Analysts at VanEck interpret this as a sign of speculative interest returning. In July, Bitcoin products (ETPs) and corporate treasuries (DATs) grew by +54.000 BTC and +72.000 BTC respectively.
Bitcoin Share Declines as Ethereum Recovers
VanEck notes that BTC dominance fell from 64,5% in early July to 59,7% by mid-August. At the same time, the Bitcoin network processed 12,9 million transactions, up 26% compared to the previous month. Fees fell by 13% to 421 satoshis due to reduced inscription activity. This was the second-lowest figure since August 2024.
Options Market Supports Growth
The VanEck report highlights aggressive growth in options demand. The call/put ratio rose to 3,21, the highest since June 2024. Investors spent $792 млн (+37% in a month) on call premiums. The total premium volume reached $1,1 млрд. Volatility decreased to 32%, almost half the yearly average of 50%.
Record Hashrate and Rising Miner Revenue
In August, Bitcoin’s total hashrate hit an all-time high of 902 EH/s, up 47% year-on-year. Revenue per EH/s rose to $59.400, the highest since December 2024. According to VanEck, Hive Digital reached 14 EH/s, Cleanspark exceeded 50 EH/s with contracts for 1 GW of capacity, and CIFR reached 3,4 EH/s.
Meanwhile, the stock index of 13 public mining companies (excluding APLD) dropped ~4%, despite BTC and the S&P 500 index gaining ~2%. APLD shares surged ~54% on earnings and a partnership with CoreWeave, while CIFR shares fell ~22% amid uncertainty around costs and integration of AI/high-performance computing (HPC).
VanEck highlights an important deal: TeraWulf (WULF) signed an agreement to host 200 MW of AI load from Fluidstack, backed by Google. Under the deal, Google will receive 8% through warrants. The first launch phase (40 MW) is scheduled for the first half of 2026.
VanEck estimates that U.S. miners now control 31,5% of global hashrate, a record high and an increase from ~29% at the beginning of the year. This points to accelerating consolidation and scaling.
Market Undervalues Digital Reserves
According to VanEck’s analysis, public treasuries hold 951.000 BTC. MSTR trades at a 1,63x multiple to its BTC holdings, inspiring other DAT companies to replicate the model. However, their adjusted net asset value (mNAV) declined in July: MSTR by 16%, MTPLF by 62%, and SMLR by 12%.
VanEck notes that mNAV depends on Bitcoin volatility since it allows DAT companies to issue debt and convertible instruments. When volatility is low, issuance is limited and mNAV growth slows. At the same time, Metaplanet maintains the highest mNAV thanks to tax, regulatory, and financial advantages.
Risks and Drivers for Autumn
VanEck analysts highlight several factors that could impact the market in autumn. Open interest in options remains high, and even small price movements may be amplified by hedging. For DATs, sustained low volatility means reduced ability to raise capital. For miners, much will depend on the integration of AI loads and operational efficiency. Macroeconomic signals and the return of investors after summer could either support or cool the market.
Despite possible fluctuations, VanEck maintains its forecast: $180.000 per BTC by the end of 2025. According to CoinMarketCap, at the time of writing, BTC trades around $114.000.
This post is for informational purposes only and is not an ad or investment advice. Please do your own research making any decisions.
