Glassnode analysts observe that Bitcoin’s rally stalled amid declining activity across multiple market segments: spot, futures, options, and ETFs. Market participants are reducing positions and shunning risk, liquidity is weakening. Metrics indicate oversold conditions and diminished selling pressure. Yet the market structure remains delicate and sensitive to external signals.
Shift from Euphoria to Cooling Interest
After passing through a zone of low liquidity below the $114,000 threshold, the market began to lose momentum, according to a new report from Glassnode. Data from various segments confirm that sentiment has shifted from euphoria to cautious anticipation. Risks are overestimated, and readiness for new purchases has declined.
Spot Market Weakness
The spot market Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped from 47,4 to 35,8, entering oversold territory. The cumulative delta volume (CVD) fell from -$107.1 mln to -$220.0 mln, signalling rising selling pressure. Trade volume declined from $8.4 mln to $7.5 mln. Experts note these changes reflect waning interest and liquidity during attempts to test support levels.
Futures: Position Cuts and Weak Long-Side Demand
Open interest in the futures market fell from $45.6 mln to $44.9 mln, reflecting partial trade closures. Funding for long positions dropped 33%, down to $3.1 mln, suggesting reduced demand for leveraged longs. Perpetual futures CVD fell from -$1.2 mln to -$1.8 mln, breaking lower range boundaries and indicating aggressive selling and forced liquidations.
Options: Rising Demand for Downside Protection
Options open interest dropped 8,4%, reaching $39.8 mln. Volatility also declined: the spread narrowed from 23,84% to 16,26%. However, the 25‑Delta Skew rose to 5,51%, exceeding its upper range. Analysts say this signals growing demand for hedging and protection against possible declines.
ETF Flows: Institutional Interest Fades
Net inflows into crypto ETFs declined 24,9%, to $269.4 mln—well below the normal lower bound. Meanwhile, trading volume rose 9,9%, to $19.8 mln. Analysts note that users are responding to the situation but are not rushing to scale up positions. The MVRV metric for ETFs fell from 2,4 to 2,3, indicating a slight drop in unrealized profit levels.
Network Slows: Usage Trends Mixed
Active Bitcoin addresses rose 3,6%, to 729,000, but transfer volume fell 13,9%, to $9.4 mln. Transaction fees dropped 14,4%, to $483.2 thousand, which may reflect reduced network activity. According to Bitcoin Is Data, Realized Cap Change remained high (6,3%) indicating continued but waning capital inflow.
Profitability and Liquidity Metrics Ebb, Trend Weakens
The ratio of short‑term to long‑term capital stayed at 17,3%. Hot Capital Share remains at 36,0%, pointing to stable liquidity. Profitability metrics, however, deteriorate: supply in profit dropped to 93,6%, NUPL fell to 8,6%, and the realized profit ratio shrank to 1,9.
Overall Outlook
Glassnode concludes that the market has moved out of its euphoric phase and entered a reassessment mode. Reduced selling pressure and oversold conditions create technical grounds for a possible rebound. However, the underlying structure is still vulnerable, and future movement will depend on external demand and news flow.
Also Read:
- Citi Forecasts Bitcoin at $135,000 by Year-End Despite Weak Stock Market
- Is the BTC Cycle Theory Dead? CQ Head Admits Error in Bull Market Assessment
- Bitcoin Hits All-Time High but Overheating Signals Intensify — Glassnode
This post is for informational purposes only and is not an ad or investment advice. Please do your own research making any decisions.