Members of Congress have contacted the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Michael S. Selig, as well as the Office of Government Ethics. They are calling for clear guidance for federal employees: using non-public information to bet on event outcomes must be explicitly prohibited.
The move was triggered by a series of trades that aligned too closely with real-world events. For example, in early January, one user earned $400,000 by betting on the detention of Nicolás Maduro. The bet closed just as authorities took action.
A few days later, market participants correctly predicted the duration of a press briefing by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. The speech ended almost exactly at the time implied by the bets.
The letter also lists trades on a potential conflict with Iran, the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, and the resignation of Kristi Noem.
“Such predictions may rely on non-public data and raise national security concerns,” the authors of the letter emphasized.
Lawmakers also noted that existing law already prohibits officials from using non-public information for personal gain in derivatives trading. Bets on event outcomes fall under these restrictions.
Regulators have been asked to respond by April 13 with details on whether any investigations have been conducted, whether insider trading cases have been identified, and what measures are being taken to monitor such activity, including trades on foreign platforms.
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