In 2026, prediction markets are no longer a niche segment. According to TRM Labs analysts, monthly volume in the sector exceeded $21B, compared to $1.2B a year earlier. The growth was driven by both an influx of new users and higher activity from existing traders.
The number of unique wallets more than tripled in six months, reaching 840,000. Most liquidity now comes from regular traders, while market makers and newcomers account for a smaller share.
Demand Shifts From Crypto to the Global Agenda
Most activity now centers on contracts tied to elections, macroeconomics, and geopolitics. In effect, these platforms reflect collective expectations around global events in real time.
Additional momentum came from regulatory developments in the United States. A court allowed Kalshi to launch election-related contracts, after which the platform quickly rebounded. Polymarket also received regulatory relief, while major players started eyeing the sector.
Manipulation in the Prediction Market Segment
TRM analysts spotted clusters of coordinated trades coinciding with major geopolitical events, fueling concerns about insider trading.
In response, platforms introduced restrictions for participants with access to non-public information and strengthened transaction monitoring.