Polymarket has archived its contract on the probability of a nuclear weapon detonation in 2026. Before the market was shut down, it estimated the likelihood of such an event at 22% and generated at least $650.000 in trading volume. The decision followed a wave of backlash on social media and increased scrutiny from regulators.
The contract titled Nuclear weapon detonation by…? included several settlement deadlines — by the end of March, by the end of June, and by 2027. After the contract was archived, the page became unavailable for trading, and the X post displaying the probability of the event was removed.
The debate quickly shifted from this specific case to the broader issue of geopolitical prediction markets as a whole. Critics argued that such contracts create opportunities to exploit non-public information, especially when they relate to war and national security.
The controversy intensified after analysts from Bubblemaps reported several newly created wallets that placed bets on this scenario shortly before U.S. strikes on Iran and collectively earned around $1.0 M.
At the same time, criticism also targeted Polymarket’s competitor, the platform Kalshi. A contract predicting the possible removal of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sparked outrage after his death.
U.S. lawmakers then joined the discussion. A group of Democratic senators led by Adam Schiff filed an appeal to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, calling for a ban on markets linked to the death of specific individuals.
On Tuesday, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said the agency is preparing new rules and guidance for prediction markets. These measures are expected to introduce stricter standards for contracts of this kind.