Analysts at Wu Blockchain published a study on the Binance Alpha effect, exploring how token launches, the internal point system, and participation in airdrop campaigns affect markets and ecosystems like Solana, Sui, and Sonic.
Spoiler: despite strong interest, most projects experience a price decline, and Binance Alpha is increasingly pushing traders into an exhausting race for points, becoming a battleground for professional players.
Rising Competition and the “Involution” Effect
The Binance Alpha mechanism is built around accumulating points, which can be exchanged for the right to participate in airdrops or TGEs. However, according to analysts, as the number of participants increases, the value of points diminishes: the threshold for participation has risen to 205, prompting users to boost trading volume to stay competitive.
Currently, earning 15 points a day requires generating approximately $8,000 in daily trading volume. A user receives about $2 worth of points per $1,000 in capital. Taking into account fees and slippage, daily losses exceed $10, and the reward may be smaller or only partially offset the expenses.
Weak Traffic in the Sui Ecosystem
It was expected that the listing of tokens from the Sui ecosystem would spark a sharp rise in activity. However, according to PANews, this did not happen. As of May 14, the most liquid token, NAVX, showed a daily volume of $3.34 million. Other tokens — HIPPO, BLUE, and SCA — did not exceed a few hundred thousand. For comparison, Solana projects often record over $10 million in daily volume, while BSC projects can reach up to $200 million.
In practice, the NAVX listing on Binance Alpha did boost liquidity: from just a few thousand dollars to $1.6 million in 24 hours. However, the lack of an official bridge between BNB Chain and Sui makes it difficult for users to move assets easily, causing additional slippage and reduced engagement.
Solana Leads in Engagement
Since early May, Solana’s DEX volume has doubled from $2.2 billion to $4.59 billion. Tokens launched via Binance Alpha such as MOODENG and JELLYJELLY saw substantial gains, especially MOODENG (+140% from launch through May 14). The average return across six Solana-based projects was 12,32%, making the ecosystem one of the few with a positive trend.
The new Sonic ecosystem from Fantom also gained traction. Two tokens launched in May gained an average of 65,93% — the highest among all ecosystems. However, the number of projects is too small to confirm a sustainable trend.
Most Tokens Drop After Listing
According to data from Wu Blockchain, of the 23 tokens listed on Alpha in May, the average price change was –5,04%. The maximum drop reached 75%. Airdrop-related projects were hit hardest: all seven tokens from airdrop campaigns ended up in the red, with an average decline of 31,5%. Twelve out of 29 tokens dropped significantly after launch.
The most successful projects are typically tied to Solana: their average market cap exceeds $100 million. In comparison, the overall range spans from $1.6 million to $271 million.
