Strategy sent 411.48 BTC worth roughly $30.3 M to Coinbase Prime, after which Polymarket traders sharply revised their expectations regarding a possible sale of part of the company's reserves. Lookonchain analysts published the data on the transfer.
In the crypto market, moves like this often come right before sales, which is why quotes on Polymarket started climbing fast. After the funds shifted, the probability that Strategy would sell at least part of its bitcoin before December 31, 2026, jumped from 23% to 84%.
How a Single Transfer Moved the Market
The contract with a year-end horizon traded at 84 cents per share on volume above $1.7 M. Nearer dates were priced far more cautiously: participants put a sale before May 31 at 12%, and before June 30 at 55%. Total turnover across the entire market topped $33 M.
The reasoning behind those betting on the optimistic outcome rested on the idea that moving coins onto a trading platform often precedes a deal. The counterargument: Coinbase Prime serves Strategy as a tool for custody, collateral, and settlement under its share issuance program, and is in no way a sell button.
A Dispute Over Scale
The transferred amount comes to less than 0.1% of the position held by the company, which keeps more than 500,000 BTC. The gap between the size of the move and the sharp spike in bets fueled a counter-reading: some in the market suggested the price reflects not this specific transfer, but an operation of an entirely different scale.
A tax-optimization theory also made the rounds.
“Strategy's holdings have dropped roughly 23% from their February peak, and moving part of the coins to an exchange fits balance-sheet management rather than an exit from the asset,” one participant in the discussion noted.
Those who reject the sell-off reading pointed to the public stance of company founder Michael Saylor, who has said he is ready to hold bitcoin under any market conditions.
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