Probabilities on prediction markets began moving well before major financial media outlets could react during the escalation of the conflict involving Iran. This shift showed a direct correlation with the price of Bitcoin. Fabian Dori, Chief Investment Officer at Sygnum Bank, shared these insights in a recent interview with Cointelegraph.
According to Dori, professional research centers are already using prediction markets as a real-time monitoring tool — on par with funding rates, option surfaces, and order flows.
“Prediction markets are no longer a niche product. The only question now is how to effectively integrate them into the analytical process so they provide genuine value rather than just becoming another source of noise,” Dori noted.
The core advantage lies in the instrument’s design: prediction markets assign probabilities to specific, named outcomes that are backed by real capital.
For the crypto market, where much of the price action is tied to binary events — such as regulatory decisions, protocol upgrades, or geopolitical shifts — this represents a fundamentally different type of signal compared to traditional indicators. Platforms that constantly update capital-weighted probabilities for war, sanctions, or peace fit naturally into a decision-making logic that operates before the event actually occurs.
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