Arthur Hayes, the ex-head of BitMEX, published an essay analyzing the influence of the conflict in Iran on macroeconomics and the crypto market.
He claims that Donald Trump's actions will force the Fed to lower rates and ramp up dollar issuance, creating conditions for the surge of bitcoin and altcoins. The author refers to data from 1985, illustrating the connection between Middle Eastern conflicts and monetary softening.
Hayes calls the situation “iOS Warfare” — a mix of strikes and alleged AI from OpenAI for regime change.
“The Pentagon and OpenAI launched AI weapons disguised as an operating system, which will cause bombardments and expenses in hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars. These expenditures will enrich elites, provoke emission for the war and ultimately push the crypto market,” he stated.
Hayes Noted Historical Patterns
Hayes shows a graph where expenses on veterans outpace the budget twofold, and the Fed lowered rates after conflicts. In 1990, under George H.W. Bush in the Persian Gulf, the Fed kept rates steady but later cut them due to uncertainty and oil. In 2001, George W. Bush started the war on terror after September 11, and the Fed accelerated the reduction to 1.75% for the economy.
