The OAK Research team, supported by Kraken, published a landmark report on the state of the industry. The main takeaway is that the market has matured and turned ruthless. The era of romance and guaranteed post-halving growth has ended, giving way to geopolitics, lobbying, and rigid project selection based on financial metrics.
Macroeconomics Shattered the Halving Calendar
Bitcoin ended 2025 practically where it started, despite reaching an all-time high of $126,000. Analysts declare the death of the four-year cycle model. The premier cryptocurrency has definitively transformed into a macro asset: price action is now driven by Fed rates and global liquidity, completely ignoring retail sentiment.
The "October Cascade" illustrated this new reality. On October 10, following news of Donald Trump introducing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, the market collapsed by $25B in a matter of hours. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance exceeded 60%, literally sucking liquidity dry from altcoins.
Risks of Corporate Whales
Coin supply is centralizing rapidly. Over 200 public companies with digital asset treasuries (DATs) hold over 1 million BTC — representing 5% of the total supply. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is playing the most aggressive hand. After rebranding, Michael Saylor’s company positions itself as a "Bitcoin monetary network," having accumulated 640,000 BTC on its balance sheet with an average entry price of $74,032.
However, the market has begun to doubt the sustainability of this model. Strategy shares fell by 35% in the second half of the year, decoupling from Bitcoin’s own performance. JPMorgan analysts warn that the company’s exclusion from the MSCI and Nasdaq 100 indices could trigger a crash in share prices.
Ethereum Losing Its Edge
The second cryptocurrency finished the year down 8–12%. Technological progress paradoxically hurt the network’s economy: the migration of activity to L2 solutions crashed mainnet fees. The burn mechanism ceased to compensate for issuance, and Ether became inflationary again, losing its narrative as "ultrasound money."
A fight for survival has begun in the Layer 2 (L2) sector. Capital and users are fleeing to leaders like Base and Arbitrum. The remaining networks are turning into "ghost towns," and their tokens are depreciating due to the lack of a clear value capture model. Analysts believe that in 2026, the Ethereum Foundation faces a large-scale reorganization to find a new identity.
A Billion for a Team of 11
The decentralized exchange Hyperliquid became the main beneficiary of this trend shift. A team of just 11 developers generated annual revenue exceeding $1.1B. Instead of hoarding profits, the project directs 99% of revenue to buy back the native HYPE token, maintaining constant buy pressure.
This case cemented the "Revenue Meta" and buried the old retrodrop model, where tokens dumped 70–90% immediately after listing. The market is shifting to projects with cash flow. "In 2026, this wave will be picked up by AAVE with the V4 update and Uniswap, which is expected to activate the fee switch in favor of token holders," the report notes.
Digital Dollar Backing the National Debt
With the passing of the GENIUS Act, stablecoins in the US received official status, turning into a tool for purchasing Treasury bonds. Issuers of USDT and USDC became key creditors of the American government. The real-world asset (RWA) sector now acts as a direct bridge between DeFi and traditional finance, ensuring the global expansion of the dollar.
Legalization also intensified the politicization of crypto. The Trump family monetized power through the launch of the World Liberty Financial platform and their own memecoins, earning billions of dollars on insider deals.
Roadmap 2026: What to Expect
Analysts highlighted key events that will define the industry landscape next year:
- Infrastructure and Regulators. The market prepares for the return of $9B to Mt. Gox creditors, the appointment of a new Fed Chair, and the inclusion of spot crypto ETFs in 401(k) pension plans.
- Changing Token Sale Models. Hybrid formats will replace free giveaways. The ICO of the Playmarket project, the TGE of the OpenSea marketplace, and an airdrop from Base are expected. Hyperliquid will continue its incentive program in Season 3.
- Tech Trends. The focus is shifting to the merger of blockchain and AI. Bittensor (TAO) remains the leader in the compute market. Prediction markets are also forecast to go mainstream — Polymarket and Kalshi are preparing to launch their own tokens.
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