According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom Fund, Bitcoin will not face a prolonged decline in the coming months. He argues that the key factor driving BTC’s performance remains central bank policy rather than the programmed reduction in supply.
In his essay “Long Live the King!” published on October 9, Hayes wrote that previous market crashes were triggered by monetary tightening, not by halving events. In each of those cycles, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 70–80% from its peak levels.
“Traders are trying to apply historical patterns to predict the end of the current bull market. They do this without understanding why that pattern worked before – and without that understanding, they can’t see why it won’t work now,” Hayes noted.
The last halving took place in April 2024. Historically, the event has marked the start of a new growth phase followed by a correction. Typically, a bear market would begin 16–18 months later. Hayes believes that this familiar pattern will change as global regulators shift toward stimulus-driven policies.
What Has Changed in Central Bank Policy
The United States has already begun a cycle of rate cuts. In September 2025, the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to around 4%. Over the next year, the regulator could lower it by another full percentage point, creating conditions for liquidity growth.
Hayes noted that the new administration in Washington, led by Donald Trump, intends to “heat up the economy” and stimulate growth to reduce the national debt burden. Among its priorities are lowering housing costs and revitalizing the credit market, which, according to Hayes, will lead to additional capital inflows.
Japan may also return to stimulus policies. In China, although measures remain restrained, authorities are focused on combating deflation, which likewise does not imply liquidity tightening.
“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They are clearly saying that money will become cheaper and more plentiful. That’s why Bitcoin keeps rising, anticipating this almost inevitable future,” Hayes wrote.
He also emphasized that together these factors create a favorable environment for the crypto market. In his view, this makes the traditional four-year cycle obsolete and supports the resilience of Bitcoin’s ongoing bullish trend.
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