Arthur Hayes published an essay titled “No Trade Zone”: his fund Maelstrom barely traded in Q1 2026 because two factors simultaneously created what he calls a no-trade zone — a deflationary shock from agentic AI and the war between the United States and Iran.
According to Hayes, agentic AI is already displacing office workers, and the process is only accelerating. Unemployed people will not be able to service their debts, banks will face holes in their balance sheets, and as a result, the Federal Reserve will be forced to resume money printing. Until that signal appears, the expert is not ready to aggressively buy Bitcoin, although he does note an encouraging decoupling: after the ceasefire, SaaS stocks continued to fall while Bitcoin held steady.
Hayes breaks the Iran conflict into three scenarios — from a ceasefire to a full-scale strike on the country. In all three cases, the final outcome is the same: central banks resume money printing, and Bitcoin rises. The difference lies in timing and the depth of the preceding decline.
“My entry level in a negative scenario is $60,000,” he said.
The main thesis of the essay is that Bitcoin’s price is driven by the amount of fiat liquidity in the system, not by central bank interest rates. That means even if rates rise alongside an expanding money supply, Bitcoin and gold will benefit, while cash-flow-driven equities will decline.
Maelstrom is increasing its long position in Hyperliquid and adding exposure to gold. Hayes is waiting for the launch of HIP-4 and expects the protocol to capture market share from Polymarket and Kalshi in the prediction markets segment. Everything else remains on hold.