JPMorgan analysts reported that bitcoin has been trading below its production cost for five straight months, with that level estimated at roughly $78,000. As a result, about 20 percent of miners are operating at a loss, and public mining companies sold more than 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of 2026 — more than in all of 2025.
These sales were driven by the need to cover operating expenses amid low prices following the halving and the correction from last year's highs.
The second week of June brought noticeable relief for the remaining participants: network difficulty dropped by 10%. Such a significant adjustment came as a result of inefficient equipment being switched off, which is typical for periods when roughly 20% of miners end up below breakeven.
Bitcoin is currently hovering around $62,000–63,000. JPMorgan analysts emphasize that prolonged trading below the production level strengthens the correlation between price, hashrate, and difficulty, creating risks for the network's short-term security and the potential for additional pressure through forced selling.
In the past, cycles like these have often led to weaker players dropping out, followed by an economic recovery for the more efficient companies.
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