Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said the cryptocurrency market has already seen its cycle bottom. In his view, Bitcoin hit a low of $59,000 — a decline of 53% from the all-time high of $126,000 reached on October 6.
The main catalyst behind the reversal was the de-escalation in the Middle East following Donald Trump’s announcement that a deal with Iran had been finalized and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. The memorandum is scheduled to be signed on June 19 in Switzerland, while the strait, through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies had been transported, is set to reopen to commercial shipping on Friday.
“Hostilities have ceased on all fronts, including Lebanon,” confirmed Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
The United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy have expressed their willingness to lift sanctions on Tehran in exchange for verifiable nuclear commitments.
Bitcoin moved higher following the news. At the time of writing, it was trading around $65,700, up about 2% over the past 24 hours.
Why the Expert Believes the Bottom Is In
Kendrick linked the recent sell-off to the largest outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs in their history. Since mid-May, the funds have seen more than $5.72B in outflows.
He also noted that some investors sold positions to free up capital for SpaceX’s IPO.
Shares of Elon Musk’s company debuted on Nasdaq on Friday at around $150 and are trading roughly 26% above the offering price. Meanwhile, on crypto exchanges such as Hyperliquid, SpaceX contracts were already seeing strong trading volumes and valuations of up to $2.4T. With the IPO now complete, Kendrick believes that source of market pressure has largely disappeared.
He also pointed to the U.S.-Iran deal as another key factor.
“De-escalation is preventing oil prices from rising, and lower oil prices push U.S. Treasury yields lower, reducing macro pressure on the cryptocurrency market,” he said.
Signals Supporting the Reversal
Kendrick said he will be watching three signals in the coming days.
On Monday, he expects an announcement of another Bitcoin purchase by Strategy.
On Friday, he expects spot Bitcoin ETFs to return to net inflows.
The third indicator is a continued decline in global oil prices.
Early data already appears to support his view. On June 15, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $85.8M in net inflows, ending a prolonged streak of outflows.