According to Glassnode, the Bitcoin market has entered its second consecutive week of decline after reaching a record high of $124,000. The asset is now trading around $111,000, close to the lower boundary of the zone where coins have been actively accumulated since December 2024. This area between $93,000 and $110,000 may serve as medium-term support if selling pressure increases. Against this backdrop, Glassnode is analyzing several on-chain metrics to assess the current level of stress and risk.
New Investors in Loss
Bitcoin is now trading below the average purchase price for investors who entered the market one, three, and six months ago. For them, the levels stand at $115,600, $113,600, and $107,000, respectively. The current price sits below all three thresholds, which increases the risk of loss-taking and stronger selling pressure.
If the price fails to hold above $107,000, a further decline into the $93,000–95,000 range is likely. This level corresponds to a dense support zone highlighted by the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap model and may serve as a point for forming a local bottom.
Current Drawdown Still Limited
Since the peak at $124,000, Bitcoin has dropped by about 11,4%. This is significantly smaller than the corrections seen in previous cycles: interim declines often exceeded 25%, while deep bear phases reached up to 75%.
According to the report, the Relative Unrealized Loss indicator remains around 0,5% — far below the levels of more than 30% observed in past bear markets. This confirms that despite pressure on new holders, mass capitulation has not yet begun.
Sales Not Yet Locking in Losses
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures whether coins are being sold at a profit or a loss, remains close to the neutral value of 1. This means that, on average, active market participants are not yet realizing losses. In previous cycles, capitulation began when SOPR dropped below 0,98 — such a signal is not present at the moment.
Spot Demand Neutralized
On the spot market, sentiment has turned neutral. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which reflects the balance between buys and sells, has leveled out to zero. This is a noticeable shift compared to the strong demand in April 2025, which helped push the price from $72,000 to $124,000. Now buyers are no longer showing the same confidence.
Perpetuals in Negative Territory but Trend Unstable
In the perpetual futures market, there has been a shift toward sellers. Since July, CVD has turned negative — especially on Binance and Bybit. This indicates growing short activity among speculators. However, the indicator frequently changes direction, and its dynamics need further monitoring.
Funding rates across major exchanges remain around 0,01%, confirming weak attempts by traders to buy the dip. Analysts believe the overall picture remains fragile: the market could easily tip further downward under additional pressure.
Key Risk Levels
From a medium-term risk perspective, the $107,000–108,900 range remains critically important. Losing these levels would open the way for a drop to $93,000–95,000. At the same time, a return to $113,600 could trigger local selling from those looking to break even.
The full report is available at the link.
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This post is for informational purposes only and is not an ad or investment advice. Please do your own research making any decisions.
