As CryptoQuant reports, the Federal Reserve System is preparing for one of the most unpredictable FOMC meetings in years. The government shutdown canceled the October employment report, delaying November data until mid-December and leaving the regulator without crucial labor indicators.
As a result, expectations for policy easing have dropped to the 40–50% range. The latest Fed minutes also indicated a serious internal split: some officials are firmly against cutting rates, while others still consider it a possibility.
Probable Bitcoin Range Under A Tight Policy
If the Fed refrains from cutting rates in December, the rationale remains clear: inflation holds near 3%, regulators fear easing too soon, and missing data reinforces caution. This kind of environment typically keeps liquidity tight, dampening investor appetite for risk.
The bitcoin market responds instantly. When rate-cut expectations dropped in early November, risk assets plummeted, and the leading cryptocurrency saw a sharp sell-off. If the Fed maintains caution in December, this pressure could persist. During tight policy periods, investors tend to reduce leverage, making the market highly sensitive to negative flows.
The CQ analyst suggests that, in this scenario, the price of bitcoin will likely fluctuate between $60,000 and $80,000 through year-end. The lower boundary reflects liquidity contraction and risk aversion, while any upside remains capped until macro clarity returns.
The key question is whether the record stablecoin reserve remains sidelined, or if it begins to flow into spot demand once the uncertainty following the Fed meeting starts to fade.
