Bitcoin Market Builds Pressure Amid Record-Low Volatility — CryptoQuant

The Bitcoin market has entered a phase of unusual calm. Weekly realized volatility has compressed to around 17%, down from nearly 39% at the beginning of the quarter — a decline of about 56%. A CryptoQuant analyst noted that this is one of the lowest readings seen in recent years, while the long-term median remains near 34%. During periods of panic, the same metric has previously surged above 90%.

Realized volatility measures actual price swings rather than options market expectations.

“The compression of its 30-day average to these levels shows that the trend has lost momentum, while price continues tightening within a narrow range and building pressure for the next move,” the analyst said.

Previous episodes of similar compression have formed a consistent pattern. Deep volatility squeezes rarely fade gradually and typically precede a sharp directional move. Sooner or later, this period of forced calm gives way to a breakout.

Where the Market Could Move Next

According to the analyst, the outcome will depend on two key signals around the 200-day moving average. If the price establishes itself above this level while volatility begins expanding, it would open the way for further upside and restore market risk appetite. However, a sharp spike in volatility while the price remains trapped below the 200-day moving average would shift the scenario toward a broad wave of position unwinding.

Read also:

• Bitcoin Conference 2026, Las Vegas: 10 Key Insights That Will Shape the Market
• Billionaire Mark Cuban Sold Most of his Bitcoin as Narrative Breaks Down

This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute advertising or investment advice. Please do your own research before making any decisions.