Bitcoin on-chain metrics have approached levels that in previous cycles coincided with the end of major sell-offs. Analysts at Grayscale and CryptoQuant reached this conclusion independently, despite using different methods to assess the state of the network.
Signals Are Moving Closer to Accumulation Zones
According to Grayscale, Bitcoin has been trading well below its long-term fair value since falling below $60,000. A composite indicator based on several on-chain metrics has dropped below its historical average, suggesting that the asset is undervalued.
At the same time, the analysts emphasize that current readings have not yet reached the extreme levels recorded at the bottoms of previous bear market cycles, including the period following the FTX collapse.
CryptoQuant’s data paints a similar picture. The share of Bitcoin that remains in profit has fallen close to 45%.
Holders Are Losing Their Profits
Historically, readings above 90% corresponded to sustained growth phases, when most investors were holding unrealized gains. A decline toward 45% typically occurred during prolonged corrections, when a significant portion of market participants moved into loss.
According to CryptoQuant, the current decline reflects a broad deterioration across the network rather than issues affecting specific groups of holders. A substantial share of the circulating supply has already lost its buffer of unrealized gains, pointing to a reassessment of market expectations.
Analysts note that such periods are often accompanied by short-term speculators exiting the market and coins gradually shifting into the hands of investors with a longer-term horizon.
Market Bottom Has Not Yet Been Confirmed
Neither Grayscale nor CryptoQuant considers the current metrics to be direct confirmation of a market bottom. Both analyses stress that individual indicators cannot accurately determine the exact moment of a trend reversal.
Nevertheless, both studies point to the same trend: the market is undergoing a deep revaluation, while key on-chain indicators are approaching levels that in previous cycles frequently coincided with the formation of long-term Bitcoin accumulation zones.
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