Bitcoin has extended its decline since the October peak and is now nearing formation of the technical “death cross” — when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day average.
Traditionally viewed as a strongly bearish sign, the pattern indicates weakening short-term momentum relative to the long-term trend and can mark a transition into a slower phase of the market. Yet the previous three “death crosses” in the current cycle coincided with local bottoms.
Glassnode data shows the 50-day moving average now at $110,669, approaching a crossover with the 200-day average at $110,459.
The Bearish Signal Trap
Despite its name and bearish reputation, Glassnode’s data shows the pattern has behaved differently this cycle. The upcoming “death cross” will be the fourth since 2023.
Each previous event aligned with a major local price bottom:
- In September 2023, BTC fell to around $25,000 before recovering.
- In August 2024, during a correction triggered by the Japanese yen carry-trade unwind — a move that often tightens liquidity for risk assets — support formed near $49,000.
- In April 2025, amid uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariff policy, BTC briefly dipped below $75,000.
In all three cases, the market bottomed just before the “death cross” was fully formed, turning what is usually a bearish signal into a bullish one.
Comparison with Previous Corrections
The current 25% pullback has lasted 41 days — milder than April’s 30% drawdown over 79 days. Given the shorter duration, there may still be room for further downside.
Another factor is the market’s response to the U.S. government reopening on November 12. In 2019, Bitcoin dropped more than 9% within five days after a government shutdown ended and recovered only two weeks later, by February 9.
This time, the price has already fallen about 10% since the reopening, creating a clear historical parallel.
Read also:
- Glassnode: Bitcoin Drop Below $100,000 Triggered by Long-Term Holders
- Haseeb Qureshi from Dragonfly: This Downturn Is The Easiest Bear Market
This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute advertising or investment advice. Please do your own research before making any decisions.