BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom fund CIO Arthur Hayes warns that the rapid rise of AI could spark a credit crisis in the United States. He shared his views in a recent interview.
According to Hayes, companies are starting to replace office employees with algorithms on a large scale. Layoffs among white-collar workers weaken borrowers’ ability to repay loans, which then drives up defaults and puts pressure on banks.
Mass Layoffs Put Pressure On The Financial Sector
Hayes compared the potential impact to the 2008 crisis, when the U.S. lost roughly 35% of industrial jobs after China joined the WTO.
“With the rise of AI, companies can now cut a large part of their workforce in a very short time,” he said.
He estimates that losing 10–20% of office staff could wipe out 60–70% of regional banks’ stock value. In that scenario, depositors tend to move their funds to the biggest banks, such as JP Morgan and Citibank.
Dollar, Liquidity, And Bitcoin
If the pressure builds, the Federal Reserve is likely to roll out massive dollar issuance, Hayes says. He believes the scale could surpass the stimulus programs seen during the pandemic.
Hayes calls Bitcoin a liquidity indicator. Over the past six to nine months, the asset has dropped about 50%, while the NASDAQ remains steady and gold continues to climb.
If money printing continues, Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $500.000 within five years.
How Hayes Views The Market
The analyst dismissed theories about market-maker manipulation. He attributes investor losses to short-term trading horizons and leveraged positions.
He advises a long-term hold strategy with regular purchases, citing Bitcoin’s drop from $1.3 K to $135 in 2014–2015 as an example.
At Maelstrom, Hayes invests in early-stage projects, including Ether.fi, Pendle, and Athena. He also keeps a long position in Zcash, seeing transaction privacy as essential in the era of AI-driven blockchain analytics.
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