Inal Kardan, a partner at TON Ventures, expressed concern over the current state of The Open Network (TON) and its integration with Telegram. According to him, the ecosystem is going through difficult times. In a post on X, he analyzed the current state of the network and assessed key trends.
GameFi Loses Momentum
Kardan believes that in 2024, GameFi was the main trend in the TON ecosystem, driven by projects like Notcoin, CatizenAI, and Hamster Kombat. However, this boom quickly fizzled out. He explains that the tap-to-earn mechanic showed its short-term nature due to the excessive number of clones, short life cycles, and high bot activity.
Some projects are trying to replicate success by experimenting with shake-to-earn (e.g., Banana Meter Bot), but Kardan emphasizes that they haven’t reached the scale of the initial games. According to him, the industry is now in a downturn phase, according to the Gartner Hype Cycle.
He noted that projects inspired by RPGs and concepts like Pixels on TON attracted users, but their audiences were disappointed. Kardan believes the future of GameFi on TON depends on a shift to more quality, mid-hardcore games that focus not on airdrops but on engaging gameplay. However, the main issue remains — where to find paying players.
DeFi Stalls Web3 Development on TON
Kardan believes that the limited capabilities of DeFi are hindering the transformation of GameFi users into long-term Web3 investors. He says that each ecosystem segment (lending, DEX, derivatives trading) currently has at least two strong projects. However, DeFi on TON faces serious challenges, including a lack of high-yield strategies, slow product rollouts, and a lack of strong marketing.
According to Kardan, TON DeFi teams are too focused on creating “first-of-their-kind” products aimed at the success of the entire ecosystem rather than focusing on end users. He believes this is a mistake: instead of trying to replicate Ethereum and Solana projects, developers should offer simplified and user-friendly solutions for TON users.
He also pointed out the problem of lacking major listings. Successful projects like STON.fi, Storm Trade and Dedust, and Dedust failed to list on Binance, Bybit, or OKX. Kardan sees this as a missed opportunity and urges DeFi project teams to take listings more seriously.
Memecoins Fail to Meet Expectations
Kardan mentioned that TON has become an experimental playground for memecoins, but most attempts have failed. He recalled the launch of mempads, meme games, and even audio memes, but none of these products succeeded in attracting a mass audience. The only exception he mentioned was the Pump.Fun platform, which became successful in its niche.
According to Kardan, investors are unlikely to invest in TON memecoins, as they are not what users want. He is confident that TON cannot surpass other networks in this category, and currently, this direction has little potential.
AI Agents and Telegram Products — The Future of TON
Kardan believes that AI agents within Telegram hold great potential. He suggested imagining a bot to which you could write: “Manage my $10K USDT in DeFi with minimal risk and a 30% annual return.” In his opinion, this is a perfect fit for TON and Telegram, but such solutions are not yet available on the market.
He also noted that OpenAI could disrupt startups in this area, referencing their new product, Operator, which allows users to complete tasks through a browser without programming. Kardan believes this is exactly what Telegram users are waiting for, but developers in this space are currently lagging behind.
Telegram Gifts and NFT Prospects
Kardan pointed to Telegram Gifts, which he believes could revive the NFT market. He noted that there is already a secondary market within Telegram that reached a volume of 314,000 TON in just 20 days. He believes that if Telegram adds blockchain functionality to its gifts, this figure could increase many times over.
He also mentioned that some gaming projects are already using Telegram Gifts, such as Duckygram. Kardan believes that incorporating Cryptokitties-like mechanics into Telegram could become a new market driver. Additionally, he suggested the idea of selling stickers through NFTs, which could open up a new market for digital assets within Telegram.
The Main Problem for TON
Kardan emphasized that TON has lost the attention of Crypto Twitter. He noted that while Bitcoin, Solana, and the U.S. market remain the focus, TON risks becoming marginalized in the industry. Even changes in Telegram’s rules for blockchains have not generated significant buzz within the crypto community.
He believes that the TON team needs to focus on the U.S., as that’s where the majority of investments and users are located. Kardan also stated that one of TON's most ambitious goals should be to get listed on Coinbase. According to him, the exchange is revising its strategy for adding new assets, and TON could take advantage of this opportunity.
Kardan also stressed that TON needs strong marketing campaigns to regain the interest of users and investors. Otherwise, he believes the ecosystem risks losing even more competitive ground.
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