According to Bloomberg, Spotify detected more than 500,000 artificial streams of Malcolm Todd’s song Earrings, which affected the outcome of a Kalshi prediction market with roughly $3.0 M in trading volume. Following its review, the streaming platform asked both Kalshi and Polymarket to remove the Spotify logo and state that neither platform has an official partnership with Spotify.
Trading volume on Kalshi’s contract predicting the most popular song in the U.S. for June reached around $3.0 M. The winning outcome was determined using Spotify’s data before Spotify had completed its review. Spotify later removed more than 500,000 artificial streams and informed both platforms that the statistics had been revised.
The situation highlighted how vulnerable prediction markets remain when their settlement depends on external data. Until the data provider completes its review, any attempt to manipulate that data can affect a contract’s outcome and affect how payouts are distributed among traders.
Spotify said it regularly removes artificial streams before royalties are paid, emphasizing that such activity has long been one of the major challenges facing streaming platforms.
Kalshi said it is reviewing the Earrings case together with Spotify.
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