An analyst reviewed data from more than 194,000 addresses trading in Polymarket’s 2026 World Cup Winner market and found that a small group of participants captured the vast majority of the profits.
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After the conclusion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, independent on-chain researcher defioasis.eth published an analysis on X of the Polymarket market for betting on the tournament winner. The sample included more than 194,000 unique addresses that traded the relevant contracts.
The study revealed a sharp asymmetry in outcomes: about 67% of participants ended up with losses, while large profits were concentrated among a limited number of traders.
According to the analyst, roughly 130,000 addresses finished trading at a loss. Most losses were relatively small: about 114,000 addresses lost less than $100, and the average loss in this category was under $10.
A small number of traders posted major losses. In total, 43 addresses lost more than $100,000 each, and their combined losses exceeded $15 M.
About one-third of market participants made a profit, but most earned less than $100. The average profit in this category was under $5.
The most notable gains were concentrated within a small group of addresses. Only 54 participants earned more than $100,000 each, with a combined profit of more than $22 M. The average result for this group was approximately $413,000 per address.
Another 305 addresses generated profits of between $10,000 and $100,000, totaling about $8.6 M.
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