The crypto platform Polymarket ran a sweeping social media campaign in which dozens of bloggers posted videos showing supposedly winning bets on prediction markets. As The Wall Street Journal discovered, those trades were placed on specially built copies of the site.
According to the publication, the campaign pulled in more than 140 million views across TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram. Yet Polymarket's main service has remained off-limits to American users since 2022, even though it can still be reached through a VPN.
How the Fake-Trade Campaign Worked
Polymarket built near-identical copies of its website and had bloggers act out trading on them, passing off fake trades as the real thing. The creators sent their recordings to the company for approval and reshot the clips whenever they looked unconvincing or showed signs of tampering.
Several people in the program said the company asked them not to disclose the partnership, with monthly payments reaching $2,000–3,000.
Reporters analyzed more than 1,100 clips from ten creators that Polymarket's marketing contractor had singled out to promote the platform. In 778 of the videos, the bloggers showed themselves placing bets, and in every single case they used the fake versions of the site.
What Was Hiding Behind the Easy-Money Videos
In 118 clips, the creators showed winnings of nearly $900,000. The Wall Street Journal's review found that a large share of those bets would have lost money if they'd been placed for real.
One of the most popular examples was a video from student George Makihara, who claimed a $100,000 win on a prediction that US President Donald Trump would say the word "McDonald's" out loud. On the real platform, more than 50 accounts placed that exact bet — and every one of them lost.
Other bloggers posted similar content, routinely calling Polymarket bets "easy money" and showing off big profits.
Background
In 2022, Polymarket agreed to stop serving American customers and registered in Panama after regulators raised concerns about it running an unregistered marketplace. The company is now trying to bring its crypto service back to the US market while ramping up its social media push at the same time.
According to The Block, Polymarket has been losing ground in recent months on trading volume to its regulated American rival Kalshi. In May, for instance, Kalshi's turnover came in roughly twice as high — which is likely what drove the mass buy-up of clips showing fake wins.
Polymarket said it stands by the principles of fair, transparent markets and plans to audit its current advertising materials. The company also stressed that it bans trading on illegally obtained information and monitors the platform for suspicious activity.
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