Pi Network is set to launch its mainnet on February 20, but the market is reacting negatively. Over the past day, the token has lost more than 10% of its value, and downward pressure continues to mount. Some believe Pi will be the next revolutionary crypto asset, while others see it as just another bubble about to burst. Let’s examine the potential scenarios:
Bullish Scenario
Millions of Users Could Spark a Frenzy
The Pi community boasts over 50 million users worldwide. Even if only a small fraction begins active trading, it could create a scarcity effect and drive prices sharply upward — similar to Bitcoin’s early days.
Artificial Scarcity
There are already 562 million Pi tokens in circulation, but a significant portion is locked for up to three years. This restricts the available supply, potentially leading to a scarcity at listing that could trigger a price surge.
Speculative Prices Already Exceed $100
Although official trading of Pi hasn’t started, IOU prices on some platforms have reached $165 and higher. This indicates strong speculative interest, suggesting that demand may persist once Pi debuts on major exchanges.
Comparison with Bitcoin and Ethereum
Skeptics once doubted Bitcoin in its early days, yet it is now the leading asset in the market. If Pi Network can build a robust ecosystem and deliver genuine utility, early investors might see substantial profits.
Bearish Scenario
A Massive Supply Could Crush the Price
Unlike Bitcoin, which is capped at 21 million coins, Pi Network plans to issue up to 100 billion tokens. Even if only a small portion enters circulation, sustaining a high price will be extremely challenging.
Token Unlocks Could Crash the Market
While many tokens are currently locked, a mass unlock could inundate the market with supply, triggering massive sell-offs as supply suddenly far exceeds demand.
Speculative IOU Prices Do Not Reflect Reality
IOU prices on third-party platforms aren’t real market prices — they’re a result of a limited supply. Once Pi starts trading on major exchanges, a sharp price correction could occur.
Suspicion of Fraud and Legal Risks
Some experts warn of potential legal consequences for participating in Pi Network, which could negatively impact the price. Chinese crypto journalist Colin Wu has stated that in several countries the project might be seen as a financial pyramid.
“If you plan to return to mainland China, I advise you to stay away from Pi,” Wu wrote on X.
AB Kuai.Dong, a metaverse founder, called Pi Network “the largest pyramid in the Chinese-speaking world,” emphasizing that its mobile-based mining — dependent on the number of referrals — exhibits classic signs of a Ponzi scheme.
Analyst Crypto V noted that Pi’s structure resembles a pyramid, though he stopped short of labeling the project outright fraudulent.
What’s Next
Pi Network remains a controversial project: to some, it represents a future revolution; to others, it’s a high-risk investment. Post-mainnet launch, the price might soar, but if the hype is based solely on expectations, a collapse could be inevitable.
👉 Pi Network — the next big cryptocurrency or an overvalued bubble?
This post is for informational purposes only and is not an ad or investment advice. Please do your own research making any decisions.