Market Recovers Key Levels and Triggers Wave of Profit-Taking — Glassnode Report

The cryptocurrency market reacted sharply to signals of a possible trade detente between the US and China. According to analysts at Glassnode, Bitcoin (BTC) broke through the key level of $94,000, surpassing the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $92,900. This triggered active profit-taking and increased interest in derivatives.

Signs of Recovery After Correction

Glassnode notes that breaking through the STH-Cost Basis has historically signaled a shift in market phases — from correction to recovery. However, in this case, it appears to be only a short-term breakout, similar to what occurred between July and September 2024. To confirm a trend reversal, the market must hold above this level, analysts say.

Sharp Rise in Coins Held in Profit

The Percent Supply in Profit metric — which reflects the share of supply currently in profit — has reached 87,3%. This is a notable increase from the March lows. For comparison, when the price last hit $94,000, only 82,7% of supply was in profit. This suggests that around 5% of coins have changed hands at lower levels.

Balance Between Short-Term Profit and Loss

The Profit/Loss Ratio for short-term holders (STH-P/L) has returned to a neutral level of 1.0. According to the report, this indicates an equilibrium between coins held in profit and in loss. In the past, such moments often coincided with local peaks and corrections. A sustained move above 1.0 may confirm the strength of the uptrend.

According to Glassnode, the average volume of realized profit has reached $139.9 million per hour, which is 17% above the baseline. This points to active selling to lock in gains. Whether the market can withstand this pressure will be an important signal in the coming days.

The STH-SOPR metric — reflecting short-term profitability of sold coins — has climbed above 1.0 for the first time since February. This indicates that recent buyers are realizing profits. Historically, a sustained move above this level has marked the beginning of bullish phases.

Derivatives Market Shows Pessimism

Open interest in perpetual futures surged to 281,000 BTC, an increase of 15,6% since early March. At the same time, the average funding rate dropped to -0,023%, indicating a rise in short positions. Glassnode analysts believe this setup could trigger a short squeeze if the rally continues.

Despite rising prices, traders are growing cautious. The average premium on long positions has fallen to $88,000 per hour and continues to decline. This signals waning interest in longs even amid upward price movement.

Institutional Buyers Return

According to Glassnode, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $1.54 billion in a single day — one of the largest in history. This reflects growing demand from institutional investors.

Ethereum Lags Behind in Capital Inflows

Unlike BTC, Ethereum has shown weak performance. According to analysts, Ethereum ETFs attracted less than 1% of spot volume over the past two weeks. In comparison, Bitcoin ETFs accounted for more than 10%. This may explain why ETH has not followed BTC in the current rally.

Glassnode notes that the market is now at a decision point. The STH-Cost Basis remains a key indicator. Holding above this level and showing resilience in the face of profit-taking may confirm the start of a new growth phase.

The full report is available at the link.

This post is for informational purposes only and is not an ad or investment advice. Please do your own research making any decisions.