Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher shared his perspective on the seasonal phenomenon known as alt season and argued that its arrival can be predicted. According to him, alt season is not a random occurrence, but rather a pattern that can be observed based on historical data.
Altseason cyclicality
The analyst claims that alt season begins when Ethereum (ETH) significantly outperforms Bitcoin (BTC) in terms of returns. Historically, this takes place between January and May. Statistical data indicate that during this period, the average monthly return for Ethereum is about 28%, compared to only 3% for the rest of the year.
Additionally, Ethereum traditionally outperforms Bitcoin by around 20% per month during that timeframe, signaling a redistribution of capital from BTC into ETH and other altcoins—typical of a more speculative, higher-risk market.
Furthermore, an analysis of previous alt seasons shows that altcoin-to-Bitcoin pairs (such as ETH/BTC, SOL/BTC) often reach their lows in late December or early January.
For example:
- ETH/BTC hit its low on December 27, 2020
- AAVE/BTC on January 3, 2021
- SOL/BTC on December 27, 2020
- AVAX/BTC on December 30, 2020
Current Market Conditions
Deutscher asserts that the current market environment is among the most favorable for an alt season. Bitcoin’s growth drives increased interest in Ethereum and other altcoins. Seasonal factors, combined with a high appetite for risk, could create the conditions for one of the largest alt seasons in history.
Analysts note that Bitcoin dominance often reaches its peak following major political events, such as U.S. elections, then starts to decline in January or February. This occurred in 2017 and 2021, and the situation is now developing similarly.