Bitcoin continues to face selling pressure, particularly from investors who bought at recent highs, according to a new Glassnode report.
The report states that since January 2025, Bitcoin has entered a distribution phase, where capital is shifting from long-term holders to short-term speculators and sellers. Experts compare the current market conditions to August 2024, when Bitcoin crashed to $49,000.
A key indicator, the Accumulation Trend Score, which tracks the activity of large investors, remains below 0.1, signaling that sellers currently dominate over buyers.
Data from the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap shows that the highest volume of Bitcoin purchases occurred in the $95,000–$98,000 range, when investors aggressively "bought the dip." However, since late February, liquidity has declined, accumulation has slowed, and market uncertainty has intensified due to the Bybit hack and rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap. Source: Glassnode
The lack of significant buying interest after BTC fell below $92,000 suggests a shift in sentiment — traders are now more inclined to preserve capital rather than invest aggressively. This declining demand could lead to an extended consolidation phase or further decline.
How Short-Term Holders Are Reacting
Glassnode analysts also examined the behavior of short-term Bitcoin holders, dividing them into two groups:
1w–1m holders: Investors who bought BTC in the past 7–30 days.
1m–3m holders: Investors who purchased BTC 1–3 months ago.
Under bullish market conditions, the entry price of newer buyers (1w–1m holders) typically exceeds that of older holders (1m–3m holders), indicating strong demand. However, in Q1 2025, this trend has reversed — demand has weakened, and new buyers are purchasing Bitcoin at lower prices than those who invested a month earlier.
As BTC dropped below $95,000, the market fully transitioned into a phase of net capital outflows, and uncertainty began impacting investor interest. According to experts, this shift could increase selling pressure and trigger a prolonged decline.
Capitulation Phase: How Low Could Bitcoin Go
Analysts point to signs of mass capitulation among short-term investors. One key metric is the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which measures whether short-term holders are selling at a profit (>1) or at a loss (<1).
As BTC fell below $95,000, the average STH-SOPR dropped to 0.97 — a level previously seen in August 2024, right before a sharp market decline.
Bitcoin Capital Flow by Short-Term Holders. Source: Glassnode
Another crucial indicator, Short-Term Holder Coin Days Destroyed (STH-CDD), measures the age and volume of spent coins. When the market experiences sharp downturns, STH-CDD spikes, indicating panic selling. In recent weeks, this metric has shown increased activity from short-term investors, suggesting that many are offloading coins bought at higher prices.
A combination of these factors indicates that the market is undergoing a distribution phase after reaching an all-time high.
At present, the support range for short-term investors is estimated to be between $71,300 and $91,900. This aligns with a liquidity zone between $70,000 and $88,000, making it a critical support level to watch.
